Is the theory of self-regulation of the epidemic process acceptable for the new coronavirus infection COVID-19?

In recent years there have been discussions about the universality of the theory of self-regulation of the epidemic process, developed by academician V.D. Belyakov. Its adequacy for infections with different mechanisms of pathogen transmission, as well as for different groups in the ecological classification of infectious diseases (anthroponoses, zoonoses, sapronoses) has been questioned. In this connection, it seemed relevant to test the applicability of the main provisions of the self-regulation theory to the manifestations of the COVID-19 epidemic process.

The aim of the investigation was to determine whether the manifestations of COVID-19 epidemic process in the territory of Samara region were in compliance with certain provisions of the self-regulation theory of epidemic process by academician V.D. Belyakov.

Material and methods. The study was conducted in the Samara region and Moscow, the study period: March 2020 – June 2022. The data of official statistics on morbidity, population mortality from COVID-19, morbidity of community-acquired pneumonia were used as research material. Elements of classical epidemiological analysis were used as research tools, for calculations we used Excel, Statgraphics plus for Windows programs.

Results. The second (key) proposition of the theory of self-regulation of the epidemic process by academician V. D. Belyakov was shown to be applicable to the epidemic process COVID-19. On the example of COVID-19, as an infection with an unspecified group in the ecological classification of infectious diseases, the postulate of V.D. Belyakov on the relative autonomy of the course of the epidemic process in different territories was confirmed.

1. Kaminsky G.D. Recurring epidemics: modeling oscillatory processes in the spread of infectious diseases. Abstract diss. Dr. med. Sciences. M., 1994; 26.

2. Yakovlev A.A., Savilov E.D. Problematic issues of general epidemiology: monograph. Novosibirsk: Nauka, 2015; 250.

3. Yakovlev A.A., Pozdeeva E.S. About possible mechanisms of self-regulation of parasitic systems in biogeocenosis. Bulletin of RAMN. 2018; 73(3): 195-205.

4. Agafonov V.I. Materials on the discussion on the theory of self-regulation of parasitic systems and the article "Sleeping microbes", published in the "Medical newspaper" 07.02.86. Journal. microbiology, epidemiology and immunobiology. 1987; 10:62-78.

5. Belyakov V.D., Golubev D.B., Kaminskii G.D., Tets V.V. Self-regulation of parasitic systems: (molecular genetic mechanisms) L.: Medicine, 1987; 240.

6. Belyakov V.D., Yafaev R.Kh. Epidemiology: textbook. M.: Medicine, 1989; 416.

7. Mamedov M.K. To the 25th anniversary of the theory of self-regulation of parasitic systems and the 100th anniversary of the birth of V.D. Belyakova. Biomedicine. 2012; 3:47-55.

8. Belyakov V.D. General patterns of functioning of parasitic systems (mechanisms of self-regulation). Parasitology. 1986; XX(4): 249-255.

9. Malinnikova E.Yu. New coronavirus infection. Today's look at the pandemic of the XXI century. Infectious diseases: news, opinions, training. 2020; 9(2):18–32.

10. Prather KA., Wang CC, Schooley RT Reducing transmission of SARS-CoV-2. Science. 2020; 6498: 1422-1424.